: FMM Conference: The Euro at 20 – Macroeconomic Challenges

Veranstalter: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung
Ort: Berlin, Berlin-Steglitz International Hotel
vom: 24.10.2019
bis: 26.10.2019
2019 marks the 20th anniversary of the introduction of the Euro, replacing 11 national currencies. The two decades have been characterised by geographical extension to nowadays 19 countries, a modest increase in the Euro’s international role, but also by the build-up of unsustainable imbalances, and a long and deep economic and political crisis specific to many countries sharing the common currency. In response, substantial reforms have been undertaken without, though, resolving a number of key economic governance weaknesses. Since even before its birth the euro has been a subject of controversial debate amongst economists of all schools. That debate has only intensified since the crisis. Now emerging into “adulthood”, serious questions remain. Is the common currency sustainable in something like its present form? What economic policies are feasible within the current framework? What crucial reforms need to be pushed through? Can a path back to national currencies be trodden while avoiding a major crisis?

Programm (pdf)

Parallel Session Papers for Download


German labour market and industrial relations model: anatomy of a dualization process
Daniel Herrero, Complutense Institute of International Studies

How to make a Job Guarantee work for a Euro Area country? The case of Austria
Oliver Picek, European Trade Union Institute

Job guarantee and its feasibility in Europe: lessons from an SFC model
Dany Lang, University of Paris 13, Antoine Godin, Florian Botte

The impact of minimum wage on incomes when the low wage sector is large: The case of Germany
Toralf Pusch, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung


The effects of the belt and road initiative from a Chinese perspective
Jiqiang Tang, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

The effects of the belt and road initiative from a European perspective
Max Zenglein, Mercator Institute for China Studies

Infrastructure investment in Georgia and the region and the role of Chinese investment
Mate Gabitsinashvili


Consumption, Emulation, and Keynesian and Harrodian (In)stabilities
Yun Kim, University of Massachusetts, Eric Kemp-Benedict

Firm Beliefs and Long-run Demand Effects in a Labor Constrained Model of Growth and Distribution
Daniele Tavani, Colorado State University, Luke A. Petach

A demand-driven model of the natural rate of growth
Olivier Allain, Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1

Notes on accumulation and utilization of capital
Michalis Nikiforos, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College (empiric Paper click here)


Welfare models and demand-led growth regimes before and after the financial and economic crisis
Eckhard Hein, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Walter Paternesi Meloni, Pasquale Tridico

Are Some People More Equal than Others? Experimental Evidence on Group Identity and Income Inequality
Juan Carlos Peña, University of Bamberg, Christian R. Proaño, Joep Lustenhouwer, Tomasz Makarewicz

Austerity and the Decline of Social Democracy: Evidence from Germany
Christian Breuer, Technische Universität Chemnitz

Why would the ECB sustain British banks’ LiFE? The Political Economy of Standing Swap Facilities
Lea Steininger, Humboldt Universitaet zu Berlin, Mathis Richtmann


Attitudes toward climate policies in a macrodynamic model of the economy
Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández, University of Siena, Serena Sordi

Cross-Border Financial Flows and Global Warming in a Two-Area Ecological SFC Model
Marco Veronese Passarella, University of Leeds, Emilio Carnevali, Matteo Deleidi, Riccardo Pariboni

Climate Policies in a North-South Stock-Flow Consistent Macroecological Model
Nepomuk Dunz, WU Vienna, Asjad Naqvi, Irene Monasterolo

A green investment integration in a growth model: An empirical investigation
Maria Margosi, National and Kapodistrian University of Athen


Ruptures and continuities in the process of technological change in Latin America after the international financial crisis of 2008
Emilia Buccella, National Scientific and Technical Research Council, Carolina Bosnic

Income distribution, inflation and monetary policy in emerging market economies
Lilian Nogueira Rolim, University of Campinas, Nathalie Marins

Money supply is endogenous and the Venezuelan hyperinflation is a monetary phenomenon
Juan Barredo-Zuriarrain, University of the Basque Country

Macroeconomic Policies in Brazil before and after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis: Brazilian Policy-Makers Still Trapped in the New Macroeconomic Consensus
André Nassif, Fluminense Federal University, Carmem Feijó, Eliane Araújo

Saving and Investment in the 21st Century - The great Divergence

Saving and Investment in the 21. Century - Theory
Carl Christian von Weizsäcker, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Hagen Krämer

Saving and Investment in the 21. Century - Empirics
Hagen Krämer, Karlsruhe University of Applied Sciences

Saving and Investment in the 21. Century - A comment
Peter Bofinger, University of Würzburg

Saving and Investment in the 21. Century - A comment
Eckhard Hein, Berlin School of Economics and Law


Differential Returns Across Socio-Economic Groups
Miriam Rehm, University of Duisburg-Essen, Vienna University, Stefan Ederer, Max Mayerhofer

The heterogeneous relationship between per-capital income and distribution: evidence from panel co-integration
Svenja Flechtner, Uni Siegen, Claudius Gräbner

The Effects of Tax Changes on Economic Growth and Income Inequality
Simon Groß, University of Bamberg, Sebastian Gechert

Why Fiscal and Distributive Policies Should Rule the Game: The Role of Personal Income Inequality, Taxation and Financial Instability in the Sraffian (Hyper)multiplier Model
Maria Cristina Barbieri Góes, Roma Tre University

Development and stuctural Change

The relationship between Profit Margins, Exchange Rates and Structural Change: Empirical Evidences between 2000-2014
Guilherme Riccioppo Magacho, UFABC, Nelson Marconi, Rafael Azevedo Ramires Leão, Joao
Guilherme Machado

The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Undervaluation
José Bruno Fevereiro, The Open University

Export Market Size Matters
Thomas Goda, Universidad EAFIT, Santiago Sánchez González

The birth of African Eurobond issuance. Its causes and effects on domestic financial markets
Anne Löscher, University of Siegen / University of Leeds

Current Account Imbalances

Are Current Accounts Driven by Cost Competitiveness or Asset Prices? A synthetic model and an empirical test
Alexander Guschanski, University of Greenwich, Engelbert Stockhammer

Debating the assumptions of the Thirlwall Model: A VECM analysis of the Balance of Payments for Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico
Danilo Spinola, UNU-Merit,

Effects of a contractionary ECB policy shock: Reactions of the German and Spanish Economy
Alexander Behrend, TU Chemnitz, Sebastian Watzka

Price competitiveness and German export surges
Heike Joebges, HTW Berlin, Sebastian Dullien, Gabriel Palazzo


The role of global finance in the provisioning of social infrastructure and the welfare state
Cem Oyvat, University of Greenwich

Financialization, coalition of interests and interest rate in Brazil
Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira, Getulio Vargas Foundation, Luiz Fernando de Paula, Miguel Bruno
Rise and Fall of the Dependent

Financialization in Turkey
Ümit Akcay, Berlin School of Economics and Law

Financialisation and assets price bubbles in an Euro Area economy
Joan Muysken, Maastricht University School of Business and Economics, Huub Meijers

SFC & ABM Models

The conflict over income in a capitalist society: a stock-flow consistent approach
Bernhard Schütz, Johannes Kepler Universität, Srinivas Raghavendra, Petri Piiroinen, Jakob Kapeller

Long Run Effective Demand: Introducing Residential Investment in a Sraffian Supermultiplier Stock-Flow Consistent Model
Lucas Teixeira, UNICAMP, Gabriel Petrini da Silveira

An Empirical SFC Model of Real-Financial Cycles and Balance Sheet Dynamics for the Euro Areas
Michael Miess, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Stefan Schmelzer, Stefan Ederer, Armin Rezai

Fiscal multipliers and agents‘ expectations in a macroeconomic ABM
Severin Reissl, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore / Universität Bielefeld

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates

The case for intermediate exchange rate regimes
Thibault Laurentjoye, EHESS

Empirical evidence of the compensation principle in the Brazilian economy: 1994 to 2011
Julia Omizzolo, University of Campinas, Enzo Gerioni, Lilian Nogueira Rolim, Nikolas Schiozer

Carry trade in developing and developed countries: A Granger-causality analysis with the Toda-Yamamo to approach
Bruno Tomio, Univ. Grenoble Alpes

The role of central bank swap networks after the Global Financial Crisis
Carolina Alves, University of Cambridge, Angus Armstrong, Stephen Kinsella

SFC model applications to European Economies

A SFC three-balances model of Campania
Rosa Canelli, Università degli Studi del Sannio, Riccardo Realfonzo, Giuseppe Fontana, Francesco Zezza,
Angelantonio Viscione

Medium term prospects for the Italian economy
Gennaro Zezza, Università di Cassino, Francesco Zezza

A labour market-augmented empirical stock-flow consistent model applied on the Greek economy
Christos Pierros, INE GSEE

Household Debt and Macroeconomic Stability: An Empirical Stock -flow consistent (SFC)Model for the Danish Economy
Hamid Raza, Aalborg University, Mikael Randrup Byrialsen

drivers of growth

Reflections on Demand-Led Growth
Steven Fazzari, Washington University

Demand, Innovation and Research Intensity across Sectors
Joao Romero, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Ana Bottega

Kaldor 3.0: an empirical investigation of the Verdoorn-augmented technical progress function
Walter Paternesi Meloni, Roma Tre University, Fabrizio Antenucci, Matteo Deleidi

Growth models in advanced countries before and after the 2008 crisis: the role of debt, competitiveness and austerity
Engelbert Stockhammer, King‘s College London, Karsten Kohler

Macro Modelling

A New Calibration Method for Stock-Flow Consistent Models with an Application for Neo-Kaleckian Growth Model with Endogenous Money Supply
José Luis Oreiro, Universidade de Brasília, Julio Fernando, Costa Santos

Systems Estimation of a Structural Model of Distribution and Demand in the US Economy
Robert Blecker, American University, Michael Cauvel, Yun Kim

Activity levels and the flexibility of capacity utilisation in the US economy
Riccardo Pariboni, Roma Tre University, Matteo Deleidi, Santiago Gahn

Estimating a Harrod-Kaldor Business Cycle Model by the Method of Simulated Moments
Reiner Franke, Kiel University

Household and firm level analysis

Household consumption, household indebtedness and inequality in Turkey: A Micro Econometric Analysis
Özlem Albayrak, Freie Universität Berlin

Euro area sovereign yield spreads as determinants of private sector borrowing costs
Thomas Theobald, IMK Macroeconomic Policy Institute, Silke Tober

Financial Fragility and Wealth Distribution Over the Housing Cycle - An Agent-Based Analysis
Ruben Tarne, IMK Macroeconomic Policy Institute

Competition and monopoly in the U.S. economy: What do industrial concentration data tell?
Ozgur Orhangazi, Kadir Has University, Leila Davis

trade and structural Change

Structural change and upgrading in machinery value chains from the Euro Zone
Cristina Froes de Borja Reis, TU Berlin

Uneven Development and the Balance of Payments Constrained Model: Terms of Trade, Economic Cycles, and Productivity Catching-up
Danilo Spinola, UNU-Merit

The Grasshopper and the Ant: Italian regions in the face of the German export-led model. An analysis based on an input-output approach
Tommaso Ferraresi, IRPET, Leonard Ghezzi

De-industrialization and productive structure: and investigation of the role of services using the World Input Output Database
Larissa Campos, Univerisade Federal de Minas Gerais, Debora Cardoso, Gustavo Britto, João Romero

European Labour and Economic Policy

The effects of gender inequality, wages, wealth concentration and fiscal policy on macroeconomic performance
Özlem Onaran, University of Greenwich, Cem Oyvat, Eurydice Fotopoulou

The loopholes of structural reforms: links between wage devaluation and unemployment
Paloma Villanueva, Complutense Institute of International Studies, Luis Cardenas

Hysteresis in the NAIRU: An empirical analysis of capacity utilization and investment rates in Europe
Federico Bassi, University Paris 13

Labour market flexibility, employment and unemployment in Europe
Jesus Ferreiro, University of the Basque Country, Philip Arestis, Carmen Gomez

Fiscal Policy

The Economics of Counter-cyclical State Dependent Multiplier Theory: Why the Expenditure Multiplier is Larger in Recessions
Thomas Palley, Economics for Democratic & Open Societies

A Baseline Supermultiplier Model for the Analysis of Fiscal Policy and Government Debt
Fabio Freitas, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rodrigo Cavalcanti
Why 60 and 3 percent? European debt and deficit rules - critique and alternative
Jan Priewe, IMK Macroeconomic Policy Institute

Distribution and Growth

Kaleckian Growth in a Disarticulated Economy?
Adam Aboobaker, University of Massachusetts Amherst

The Paradox of Thrift in the Two-Sector Kaleckian Growth Model
Luca Zamparelli, University of Rome 1

On some difficulties in integrating Sraffian and Kaleckian view on desired utilisation regulation
Santiago Gahn, University Roma 3

Consumption differential between white-collar and blue-collar workers and rising market concentration in the USA: 1984-2017
Ilhan Dögüs, Universität Rostock

Macro Modeling and Assumptions

Technical change, capital accumulation, and distribution
Roberto Veneziani, Queen Mary University of London, Naoki Yoshihara

The Elasticity of Substitution between Capital and Labor: A Meta-Analysis
Dominika Kolcunova, Charles University Prague, Sebastian Gechert, Tomas Havranek, Zuzana Havrankova

Financial Intermediation and Stock Market Interactions in a New Keynesian Model with Animal Spirits
Naira Kotb, University Bamberg, Christian Proaño, Frank Westerhoff

The Rationality Bias
Tim Hagenhoff, University Bamberg

Economic Policy and Regulation

Financial Stability: Still Unsettled for the Future
Philip Arestis, University of Cambridge

Macroprudential institutions in Europe – what are the blind spots?
Zeynep Nettekoven, Europäische Akademie der Arbeit in der Universität Frankfurt

The euro area: the impossible reform
Jacques Mazier, University Paris 13

Productivity and technical Progress

Evidence of the relation between productivity and inflation: an empirical analysis of the Brazilian economy from 2009 to 2017
Fernando Ferrari-Filho, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Denise Piper

Does tertiarisation lead to secular stagnation? A Kaldorian-Baumolian analysis across eight developed economies
Adrián Rial, Complutense Institute of International Studies

Evidence on the productivity-real compensation growth gap from 25 European countries, 1970-2017
Sotiria Theodoropoulou, European Trade Union Institut

Artificial Intelligence: Implications for the Relationship between Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth
Enno Schröder, TU Delft

Macro Finance in the EMU

Assessing Systemic Risk: An Analysis of the German Banking Sector
Sophie-Dorothee Rotermund, HWR Berlin

Warnings of the Euro - Take 2
Johannes Schmidt, Karlsruhe University of Applied Sciences

Persistent private sector savings surplus causing stagnation and low growth in the euro-zone
Jesper Jespersen, Roskilde University

Bootstrap-Based Probabilistic Analysis of Spillover Scenarios in Macrofinancial Networks
Artur Tarassow, Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo

The Eurozone after the Crisis

Is the Eurozone disintegrating? Macroeconomic divergence, structural polarization, trade and fragility
Philipp Heimberger, Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, Claudius Gräbner, Jakob Kapeller, Bernhard Schütz

Unequal development in the post-crisis eurozone: Different macroeconomic conditions rather than labour market institutions behind the eurozone core-periphery divergence
Alberto Botta, University of Greenwich, Ben Tippet

A critical analysis of public debt under a non-convertible currency standard: Implications for the euro area
Andrea Terzi, Franklin University Switzerland

Central Banking and Monetary Policy

The Friedman rule in today’s perspective
Jens Reich, Goethe University Frankfurt

International Strategic Spillovers of Monetary Policy
Juan Montecino, Columbia University

Political Economy of the Brazilian Central Bank and the Global Financial Cycle: an empirical evaluation based on the MS-VAR model (2000-2017)
Pedro Perfeito da Silva, Central European University, Eliane Cristina de Araújo, Elisangela Luzia Araujo, Mateus Ramalho Ribeiro da Fonseca

Fiscal or monetary policy: what should we adopt to tackle Secular Stagnation?
Stefano Di Bucchianico, Roma Tre University

Stock-Flow-consistent modeling

QE, Credit and Financial Stability: Monetary Policy through SFC lens

Francesco Zezza, Università degli Studi del Sannio

A reassessment of adjustment criteria in fixed exchange-rate areas
Thibault Laurentjoye, CEMI-EHESS

The macroeconomics of dollarization
Marco Missaglia, University of Pavia

Finance and Macro

Financial uncertainty and the real economy
Fabio Henrique Bittes Terra, Federal University of ABC, Fernando Ferrari-Filho

Rent-seeking and Asset-Price Inflation: A Total-Returns Profile of Economic Polarization in America
Michael Hudson, UMKC

Banks and finance in modern macroeconomics
Bruna Ingrao, Sapienza University of Rome, Claudio Sardoni

Why the subprime financial crash should have been prevented and implications for current  macroeconomic and regulatory policy
John McCombie, University of Cambridge, Marta Spreafico

Money and Banking theoretical and Institutional perspective

Modern Money Theory: the rise in the international scenario and the debate in Brazil
Simone de Deos, University of Campinas

Banking regulation: an analysis of its dynamics brought about by the 10th anniversary of the Global Financial Crises
Ana Rosa Ribeiro de Mendonça

Interbank Market and Funding Liquidity Risk in a Stock-Flow Consistent Model
Jessica Reale, University of Siena

European Economic Policy

On the Design of a European Unemployment Insurance
Ekaterina Jürgens, University Cologne

The shrinkage after the enlargement: the effects of crises and new members’ inclusion on financial integration in the Euro area
Oleksandra Sokolenko, Università degli Studi di Torino, Maela Giofre

The „Confidence Fairy“ in the Eurozone, a Panel Threshold Analysis
Edgardo Jovero, UVigo

Does country governance matter to financial development and economic growth? A panel quantile regression analysis on EU countries
Hui Shan Lee, Universiti Putra Malaysia


The limits to profit-wage redistribution: Endogenous regime shifts in Kaleckian
models of growth and distribution
Kasper Köhler, Berlin School of Economics and Law

US Household Wealth Dynamics: Theory and Estimation using Panel Study on Income Dynamics
Jonana David Avritzer, The New School for Social Research

The Rich and the Rest: An Empirical Investigation Into the German Wealth Distribution
Jan Schulz, University of Bamberg

The Impact of Fiscal Policy, Income and Wealth Inequality, Financialization and the Housing Market on Growth
Stephanie Manea, University of Greenwich, Özlem Onaran, Rafael Wildauer

Instability and Cycle

Regulation of shadow banking: effectiveness of financial stability reforms after the global financial crisis
Michael Stöckel, Berlin School of Economics and Law

What determines investment? A Post-Keynesian survey
Luise Wimmler, University of Graz

Inventories, Debt Financing and Investment Decisions: A Bayesian Analysis for the US Economy
Ettore Gallo, The New School for Social Research, Gustavo Pereira Serra

Household Debt in Empirical Macroeconomics
Giacomo Rella, University of Siena

financial Macro and Monetary Policy

Credit Decomposition, Sectoral Structure and Economic Growth
Esra Ugurlu, University of Massachusetts Amherst

The Impacts of Capital Requirements on Banks Credit-Supply
Felix Schäfer, Chemnitz University of Technology

Quantitative Easing and Economic Growth in the Euro Area: link through Creative
Destruction in a comparison with the US and Japan
Ekaterina Vashkinskaya, HSE University

Alternative agendas: Increasing divergence among euro area central bankers
Katrijn Siderius, Utrecht University/University of Konstanz

Fiscal Policy and Labor Markets

The impact of fiscal policy on gender specific employment rates
Selin Secil Akin, UMass Amherst

European Debt Crisis and Debt Sustainability in the New Monetary Era
Vasilis Psarras, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Eftychia Psarra

The effect of financialization on the erosion of collective wage bargaining: a theoretical and empirical analysis
Lida-Vrisiida Vandorou, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens

Tax Competition vs. Tax Coordination: Causes and Consequences of the Global Race to the Bottom in Corporate Tax Rates
Ryan Woodgate, Berlin School of Economics and Law

International Trade and Emerging Markets

New Structuralism and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint
Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, Università La Sapienza, Gabriel Porcile

Theoretical origins and evolution of the Purchasing Power Parity theory in Gustav Cassel’s economic thought
José Bruno Fevereiro, The Open University

Power Dynamics in Global Value and Production Networks
Panagiotis Iliopoulos, Birkbeck College, University of London, Lilit Popoyan, Giorgos Galanis, Ashok Kumar

Democracy and growth in Latin America
Jakub Anusik

Introductory Lectures

Marc Lavoie, University of Paris 13, France
Marc Lavoie opens the introductory workshop with his lecture “History and fundamentals of Post-Keynesian Macroeconomics”. He talks about the post-Keynesian school of thought from a history of ideas perspective and gives an overview about the main features and different strands of post-Keynesian economics.

Daniela Gabor, University of the West of England, GB
In the second introductory lecture, Daniela Gabor talks about “Institutional supercycles, shadow banking and the climate crisis”. In her talk she explores the conditions under which Europe could put into practice its commitment to green the economy and become a leader in a forthcoming Green supercycle.

Steven Fazzari, Washington University in St. Louis, USA
In the final lecture of the introductory workshop, Steven Fazzari talks about “Inequality and aggregate demand”. In his lecture he assesses the question how rising inequality can explain unconventional macroeconomic outcomes through an intrinsic Keynesian theoretical lens.
Welcome Address

After the introductory lectures, Sebastian Gechert (IMK, Macroeconomic Policy Institut), co-organizer of the event, inaugurates the main part of the conference on Thursday evening.

Plenum I: In Retrospect - 20 Years Euro

Plenum I: In Retrospect – 20 Years Euro

Chair: Jan Priewe, IMK Macroeconomic Policy Institute

Paul de Grauwe: The Eurozone: Learning from our mistakes
Paul de Grauwe, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven and LSE, opens the first plenum talking about the problems and challenges of the Euro and how to learn from the mistakes that were made.

Agnès Benassy-Quéré: Recovering from Maastricht
In the second talk, Agnès Benassy-Quéré, University of Paris I, speaks about the opportunity to combine stabilization and allocation policy on a European level around the common objective of the Paris agreement.

Jörg Bibow: 20 Years of Euro Dillusion
Before the first panel discussion starts, Jörg Bibow, Skidmore College, talks about the influence of German ordoliberalism and American neoliberalism on the Maastricht Treaty.

Panel Discussion I

Plenum II: Macroeconomic Policies in a Monetary Union

Plenum II: Macroeconomic Policies in a Monetary Union

Chair: Torsten Niechoj, Rhine-Waal University of Applied Sciences

Gennaro Zezza: Fiscal Policies in a Monetary Union Gennaro Zezza, University of Cassino,
opens the second plenum by talking about fiscal policy and current account imbalances in the Eurozone.

Peter Bofinger: The Monetary Policy of the ECB since 1999: Failure or Success?
Assessing the monetary policy of the ECB in the last 20 years, Peter Bofinger, University of Würzburg, delivers a rather positive summary but also points out some faults that were made during the financial crisis.

Daniela Gabor: Three blindspots in Euroarea Macrofinance
In her talk, Daniela Gabor, University of the West of England, names three blind spots of Macroeconomic Policy in the Eurozone from the perspective of shadow banking: Financial integration that promoted shadow banking, sovereign bonds as safe collateral for shadow banking, and interconnections between monetary and fiscal policy.

Panel Discussion II

Plenum III: The Euro at 30? Institutional Challenges

Plenum III: The Euro at 30? Institutional Challenges

Chair: Andrew Watt, IMK Macroeconomic Policy Institute

Vitor Constancio: Fiscal and financial conditions for a stronger euro area
The last plenum is opened by Vitor Constancio, former Vice president of the ECB, with a talk about reforms necessary for the future of the euro area.

Robert Skidelsky: What will it take for the Euro to survive another twenty years?

Ann Pettifor: The Case for a New Green Deal for Europe
Ann Pettifor, Policy Research in Macroeconomics (PRIME), argues that the investments necessary for the transformation away from fossil energy sources can only be undertaken by the public sector.

Panel Discussion III

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