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IMK editorial
Heading for the wall
The year 2011 gave Germany strong growth, rising employment, falling unemployment and lower public deficits. It could have been called a good year if it were not also the year in which the Euro started to falter. In 2012, we will either run into the wall of a failed currency or we find a way to overcome this wall. more
Under the Spell of Austerity Policies. Economic Forecast for 2012
After a buoyant start into 2011, the German economy has markedly slowed down during the course of the year. The outlook for 2012 is bleak. A weaker global economy, the confidence crisis in the euro area and the severe austerity policies implemented in many EU countries bring economic growth to a halt. GDP will decline by 0.1 % on average. (in German)
Policy responses to the Euro debt crisis
This current crisis is more than a public debt crisis and can only be solved if the underlying causes, rooted in imbalances of the economies, are properly and institutionally addressed, too. Therefore, we briefly review the development of the crisis, show the causes and the structure of the crisis and outline the main ingredients of a policy response more appropriate to deal with the crisis.
Reforming the European Stability and Growth Pact
Public debt has increased sharply during the financial and economic crisis, but the European stability and growth pact could not have prevented this from happening. Public debt is not the only factor, private debt counts as well. It follows that the institutional framework of the European Monetary Union is inadequate.
Stability by Balanced Growth
In this expertise for the European Parliament different proposals for the reform of the European Stability and Growth Pact are evaluated. The inclusion of a framework for tackling macroeconomic imbalances could be an important step in broadening the narrow and inadequate focus of the forthcoming pact.
Formation vs. incorporation of inflation expectations and the economics of the Phillips curve
This paper examines the theory of the Phillips curve, focusing on the distinction between "formation" of inflation expectations and "incorporation" of inflation expectations.
The estimation uncertainty of permanent-transitory decompositions
We suggest an approach to construct the confidence interval of the transitory component of the Stock-Watson and the Gonzalo-Granger decompositions in a given period (e.g. the latest observation) by conditioning on the observed data in that period.
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